The Future of the UFC Championships in 2021
Two events into the new year for the Ultimate Fighting Championship and the phrase ‘title shot’ has been drifting through the discourse at an ecstatic rate. As excitement builds around a host of talented title prospects, it’s time to assess each champions’ chances of holding the belt by the end of the year and who, if anyone, will take it from them.
Women’s Strawweight Division. Current Champion: Weili Zhang
The 115lb division gave us 2020’s fight of the year as Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Weili Zhang cast regard for personal safety aside for 25 minutes to clatter one another in a title fight that will endure in history. The champion retained her belt by split decision; just one round in it on two judges’ scorecards. While this was a spectacular fight and credit must be given to Joanna, Zhang looks dominant as the champion of the weight class at this point in time. Sitting 3rd in the Women’s Pound-for-Pound rankings with the only two fighters ahead of her being Amanda Nunes and Valentina Shevchenko, Zhang’s only loss remains as the first fight of her professional career in the China MMA League back in 2013. Unbeaten in the UFC, nobody in the Strawweight top 10 could significantly compete with the volume and pressure of Weili at this moment. Perhaps Jedrzejczyk could if that rematch were scheduled for some time this year however she took masses of damage the first time around and it seems unlikely that she will be put up as the champ’s next competitor.
Will Zhang be UFC Strawweight Champion at the end of 2021? Yes.
Women’s Flyweight Division. Current Champion: Valentina Shevchenko.
We all know the story; Valentina ‘Bullet’ Shevchenko is excellent. Not only one of the most dominant UFC Champions in the company’s history but possible one of the greatest combat sports athletes of all time (don’t tell Henry Cejudo). A decorated kickboxer and Muay Thai combatant, Shevchenko has never lost at 125lbs in the UFC. In fact, the only two defeats she has suffered with the promotion both came against Amanda Nunes at Bantamweight the first by unanimous decision and the second, for the belt at UFC 215, by split decision. She has practically cleared out the weight class, defending the belt four times since winning it in 2018. As things stand, Jessica Andrade is the top contender with Katlyn Chookagian and Jennifer Maia close behind but Valentina has beaten both of those fighters in her last two title defences. Lauren Murphy looks in good form at the moment, she is the number 3 contender but, again, it’s difficult to see her being able to get past the champion who can pick opponents apart on the feet round after round before diving in for the kill when her prey is exhausted. Who can forget how she deciphered Jessica Eye in round 1, made her think that she was comfortable before silencing her, and the crowd, with the head kick KO? It’s hard to see who can stop the Bullet in 2021.
Will Valentina Shevchenko be the UFC Women’s Flyweight Champion at the end of 2021? Yes.
Men’s Flyweight. Current Champion: Deiveson Figueiredo.
Deiveson ‘The God of War’ Figueiredo is a scary man. He stands 5'5" tall and weighs 125lbs but he can hit as hard as most featherweights; he won the belt and defended it twice all in one year and he is credited with reviving interest in the division when Dana White had dangled the sword of Damocles over it months before. His bouts against Alex Perez and Brandon Moreno in late 2020 were record-breaking, no fighter had ever defended their belt back to back on that tight a turnaround. Not to mention that the excitement and brilliance of the fights themselves were remarkable. Would Moreno have rallied to a win if it wasn’t for that groin strike? Or was he saved by the point deduction? Either way, it looks as though Moreno will get another shot at the belt in Figueiredo’s next defence. Can he win it? Possibly, but one still has to favour the champion. He beat Joseph Benevidez twice and choked out Alex Perez in under two minutes, he is a machine. The biggest threat the Brazilian’s flyweight crown is of his own making; Figueiredo has failed to make weight in a title bout once before and often comes in right on the 125lb limit. Some suggest that he may be more comfortable and perhaps even more successful if he were to make the move to Bantamweight and this is not out of the question. If he does so, he would vacate his Flyweight title or may even be stripped of it if he fails numerous times to hit the scales. But none of this matters for the time being as contenders continue to fall victim to The God of War.
Will Deiveson Figueiredo be UFC Flyweight Champion at the end of 2021? Yes.
Men’s Bantamweight. Current Champion: Petr Yan.
Petr Yan has been making waves in the UFC since his debut in 2018 and earned his title shot in his last fight, defeating Jose Aldo in the 5th Round via TKO to earn the vacant strap. The former Bantamweight Champion with Russian promotion ACB, his only professional loss came in his first title shot with the promotion, a loss to Magomed Magomedov that he avenged to win the championship. He is unbeaten in the UFC with victories over division mainstays John Dodson and Jimmie Rivera as well as 135lb legend Uriah Faber and looks in good stead to compete going forward. However, the Bantamweight division in the UFC at the moment is one of the most talent-packed rosters in the promotion; any contender from 1–10 could challenge the for the belt. Yan’s next challenge to the title is a long-awaited showdown with New York’s Aljamain Sterling and, honestly, he’s going to be tested. Aljo is on an excellent run in the UFC, five wins on the bounce including a submission of the year against Cory Sandhagen last time out. Sterling has also been a Bantamweight king outside of the UFC, winning the CFFC strap and defending it three times. The bout between the two is scheduled for 2021 and there is a high chance that it could mark the end of Yan’s title run. And even if he does get past the phenom that is Aljamain, Frankie Edgar, Rob Font and Merab Dvalishvili are queuing up behind him. With the 135lb division so stacked, it’s hard to see Yan surviving the year as top dog.
Will Petr Yan be UFC Bantamweight Chamption at the end of 2021? No.
Women’s Bantamweight. Current Champion: Amanda Nunes.
The Women’s Bantamweight division has been somewhat eclipsed by interest in the two weight classes preceding it probably because they are more competitive. This is largely due to the dominance of the champion, Amanda ‘The Lioness’ Nunes, arguable the GOAT of female fighters. The last time Nunes defended the 135lb championship was in December of 2019 against Germaine de Randamie; of course, since then, she has been busy defending her other belt at Featherweight. The future of the division is hazy, with Holly Holm eying a shot at Featherweight instead of having a second attempt at 135lbs. Aspen Ladd and Irene Aldana are the only fighters in the division’s top five who haven’t already lost to the champion but Ladd hasn’t fought in over a year and has only 10 pro fights, one of which was 16 second KO loss to de Randamie and Aldana is coming off a thrashing decision loss to Holly Holm. Germaine de Randamie is active, she beat Julianna Pena by submission in October 2020 so a rematch with Nunes is the obvious choice for the next womens’ Bantamweight title fight but it’s hard to pick against the dominant champion who finished all three previous champions of the weight class while simultaneously juggling a featherweight belt.
Will Amanda Nunes be UFC Women’s Bantamweight Champion at the end of 2021? Yes.
Men’s Featherweight. Current Champion: Alexander Volkanovski.
Many will argue that Max Holloway is in fact the UFC Featherweight champion. The fight in which he lost the belt was a razor sharp decision and the rematch on Fight Island was even close with one judge even scoring the bout for the Hawaiin. But officially, the champion is 22–1 Alexander ‘The Great’ Volkanovski who has never been defeated in the UFC. His next challenge comes in the form of Brian Ortega who remains strong despite his brutalising at the hands of Holloway in his last title shot. The bout is scheduled for UFC 260 in March and the champ is a -185 favourite but we can expect him to run into some problems with Ortega who saw off The Korean Zombie last year to show that he’s still a force to be reckoned with in the 145lb division. Should Volko weather that storm, Zabit Magomedsharipov is right behind him as well as Yair Rodriguez and, of course, who could say Max Holloway doesn’t deserve a third fight after his performance against Calvin Kattar? The Men’s Featherweight Division is brimming with talent and while the champion is an exceptional fighter and yet to be beaten, he has been tested and there may be one too many tests to pass here.
Will Alexander Volkanovski be UFC Featherweight Champion at the end of 2021? No.
Women’s Featherweight. Current Champion: Amanda Nunes.
This is something of a phantom division at the moment; established to attract megastar Cris Cyborg to UFC back in 2016 it has since been ruled by the GOAT of female fighters, Amanda Nunes. On ufc.com, the division has no official rankings however Holly Holm has made noises about taking on The Lioness again at 145lb, looking to succeed where Felicia Spencer failed in June. However, Nunes has defeated Holm before and she continues to perform at the same, dominant standard.
Will Amanda Nunes be UFC Featherweight Champion at the end of 2021? Yes.
Men’s Lightweight. Current Champion: None
After submitting Justin Gaethje at UFC 255, Khabib Nurmagamedov threw his gloves in the centre of the octagon and retired from the sport of MMA, citing the loss of his beloved father as the reason for his inability to continue. While many speculate this he could be coaxed back into the cage for rematches with McGregor, superfights against Georges Saint-Pierre or another lightweight bout, perhaps agaisnt Charles Olivera, it’s safe to take The Eagle at his word. That means that the most popular division in the UFC is wide open. McGregor and Dustin Poirier fight this weekend with the winner likely to get a title shot off the back of it. The top 10 is stacked at 155lb and it’s about to get even more cramped up there with Bellator Lightweight Champion Michael Chandler signing with the UFC and taking on Dan Hooker in the co-main of UFC 257. Charles Olivera made former interim champion Tony Ferguson look like a rookie when they fought back in December, taking his win streak to 8. In many minds, that puts Do Bronx up against the winner of Conor vs Dustin for the vacant belt. But of course, Justin Gaethje and even Dan Hooker (if he can beat Chandler all deserve to be in the conversation). It’s an exciting time for the lightweight division and it would not be a surprise if there was more than one champion in 2021.
Who will be UFC Lightweight Champion at the end of 2021? Charles Olivera.
Men’s Welterweight. Current Champion: Kamaru Usman.
Sanford MMA’s Kamaru ‘Nigerian Nightmare’ Usman is a spectacle to behold at 170lbs; nobody thought he would run through Tyron Woodley in their title fight the way he did and most thought that Jorge Masvidal would give him a decent contest, that didn’t happen. His title defence against Colby Covington in 2018 was fight of the year and, after the long-delayed fight with Gilbert Burns, a rematch seems the logical next step. Behind them is Leon Edwards who is scheduled to fight Khamzat Chimaev and Stephen Wonderboy Thompson who still has title hopes late in his career. Gilbert Burns may bother Usman but it’s easy to see him grinding a decision victory there; the biggest challenge in the top 10 for the champion is the kickboxing and stamina of Wonderboy. Many tout Khamzat as being able to break into the top ten this year after his excellent 2020 but he is yet to be tested (or even pick a weight class). There is a lot going on at Welterweight but Usman is certainly the most capable 170lb fighter in the promotion.
Will Kamaru Usman be UFC Welterweight Champion at the end of 2021? Yes.
Men’s Middleweight. Current Champion: Israel Adesanya
Izzy has been strongly connected with a move to 205 to take on Jan Blachowicz for the Light Heavyweight belt in a superfight that we are all eager to see. However, that does leave his kingdom of 185lbs without a ruler but with plenty of heirs. Brad Tavares has been in the UFC for 11 years and carries a record of 17–6 and he is ranked #14. That is a testament to the sheer mass of talent in the division. Despite fan favourite Yoel Romero being cut from the promotion, the weight class is still awash with absolute titans: from veterans Chris Weidman and Derek Brunson to rising stars Marvin Vettori and Kevin Holland. Robert Whittaker has hinted at a rematch with Adesanya and he is proabably the closest thing to a challenger for the champion otherwise, we will have to wait and see where Kevin Holland’s meteoric rise takes him or if those coming off losses such as Paolo Costa and Darren Till can climb back to the top. That said, it might not be necassary for Adesanya to vacate his middleweight belt to fight at 205; he may move up to prove a point, beat Jan to hold two belts and then return to 185lbs to crush anyone who, while he was away, got illusions that they could become the champion. Israel Adesanya is probably the best fighter in the UFC and certainly the best middleweight. He has grown at 185lbs and won’t relinquish the strap wantanly.
Will Israel Adesanya be the UFC Middleweight Champion at the end of 2021? Yes.
Men’s Light Heavyweight. Current Champion: Jan Blachowicz.
With the departure of Jon Jones, the 205lb division in the UFC has now been liberated from the reign of one of the most dominant champions in history. In his wake, Polish fighter Jan Blachowicz has risen to the status of title-holder after defeating Dominic Reyes in an excellent performance, wearing him down with repeated kicks to the mid-section before launching in to barrage of punches that sealed the TKO. Jan then proceeded to call out Jon Jones pointing out that, among the litany of title defences to the former champion’s name, Jon Jones had never beaten Blachowicz. However, Jones has plans at heavyweight and the division over which the Polish powerhouse now rules has new troubles brewing. Israel Adesanya has been linked with a move up to take on the champion at Light Heavyweight and, if the superfight does take place, it’s hard to see how the 205lb Champion will be able to keep up with kickboxing, speed and acrobatics of the Middleweight king. If Jan loses to Adesanysa, and The Last Stylebender returns to Middleweight after the bout, that would make the Light Heavyweight division even more exciting. There are some great bouts to make in the top 10, not to mention some prospects emerging in 2020 such as current number #14, Paul Criag, Magomed Ankalaev (#11) and Johnny Walker (#9). With the battle for the 205lb crown wide open, it’s anyone’s guess who the next champ will be.
Will Jan Blachowicz be UFC Light Heavyweight Champion at the end of 2021? No.
Men’s Heavyweight. Current Champion: Stipe Miocic.
2020 gave us the conclusion to a classic heavyweight trilogy. Daniel Cormier, former champion of two divisions and a legend of the upper weight classes settled the score with reigning heavyweight king, Stipe Miocic in a rubber match that many said would decide who was the greatest heavyweight of all time. It was a back and forth matchup that wasn’t without is controversy as both fighters were caught with eye pokes, DC’s harsh enough to put him in hospital. Eventually, after 5 rounds, the judges saw a unanimous decision retention for Miocic. Next up for the heavyweight king is a scheduled rematch with the impossibly strong Francis Ngannou who, while Miocic defeated him convincingly over five rounds in one of the most exciting heavyweight fights in recent history, still gave him a few scares when he connected with some absolute sledgehammers. Should Miocic overcome Ngannou, he may then face a reborn Jon Jones who has finally moved up to heavyweight in search of new challenges. There was some upset in the weight class at the assumption that, due to Jones’s gravitas and star power, he would cut the queue for a shot at the belt but so far, the UFC have held their nerve and put the appropriate contenders in the right order. Jon Jones is possibly the best fighter in the UFC at the moment, the one loss on his record was by way of disqualification and he should make life as unpleasant for any opponent he faces in this division as he did in his previous kingdom of Light Heavyweight.
Will Stipe Miocic be UFC Heavyweight Champion at the end of 2021? No.
Max Pleasance
