5 Things to Watch Out for This Weekend 16th-17th January
There’s plenty coming up across the world of sport this weekend: from the West London derby to the UFC’s first event of 2021 and beyond. Amongst all the action, here are 5 key things to watch out for this weekend.
- Can Fulham draw their way to Premier League survival?
Something interesting is going on at Craven Cottage; Fulham FC, the newly promoted team whom many bookmakers had as 1/1 favourites to return to the Championship next season are unbeaten in 6 games. While that may seem impressive, Scott Parker’s team scoring goals as they were unable to do last season, there is one small problem. They have only won twice in the 2020–21 campaign thus far. Is this due to their watertight defence? Not particularly, the Cottagers have shipped 24 goals this season, similar to other teams across the table. So they’re scoring to match their opponents then? They aren’t really doing that either. With 14 goals to their name, the only teams above them in the table with less are the defensively driven Burnley. It’s more likely to do with the fact that, of 16 games this season, 6 of them have resulted in a 1–1 or 0–0 draw, their last 5 league game have ended this way. How bad is this exactly, a draw is not a loss, right? Well, if a team drew every single game in a Premier League campaign, they would accumulate 38 points. Analysts and managers have often alluded to the ‘magic 40’, implying that 40 points is the threshold to achieve survival. While this seems reasonable, 40 points is a decent haul for a newly promoted side, it is largely dependent on how the other teams in their bracket are doing. So far, West Bromwich Albion, Sheffield United, Burnley and Brighton and Hove Albion are languishing at the foot of the division with the West London side and, truthfully, all of these teams are in trouble. If Fulham continued their unbeaten yet winless run in the league, they may just scrape it if The Blades and The Baggies continue to tank. History favours The Cottagers at this stage, no team with a single figure points total at this stage in the season has ever survived relegation; Fulham have 12 while West Brom and Sheffield United have 8 and 5 respectively. Fulham have a tough run of games in the near future too, the West London derby against rivals Chelsea on Saturday and then hosting league leaders Manchester United. However, after that tricky spell, they need to pounce on the opportunities in their schedule; a cup tie against Burnley would be a psychological boost against relegation rivals, followed by Brighton and West Brom in the league. The relegation battle in the top-flight this season may be just as exciting as the title race. Keep an eye on Fulham v Chelsea on Saturday.
Key questions: Chelsea have had no problem scoring this season, 32 goals for the Blues so far; can Fulham keep their concessions down to a minimum as they managed to in their recent draw with Tottenham? Scoring will not be as important as not conceding in the early stages of the game for Fulham, however, later on, they will need to get cracking in front of goal; can Cavaleiro come to the host’s rescue in that regard? Will Mitrovic be healthy to play for the hosts?
2. Holloway vs Kattar: Who does the next featherweight title shot belong to?
The UFC’s inaugural event of 2021 is headlined by former champion and featherweight legend, Max ‘Blessed’ Holloway and rising star Calvin Kattar with many believing that should the Bostonian emerge victoriously, he will be entitled to his first shot at the belt against Alexander Volkanovski. For the first time in the company’s history, a fight card will be broadcast on American Network NBC, meaning that a fresh set of eyes will be firmly glued on these two 145lb warriors and the sport of Mixed Martial Arts in general. In terms of representation for MMA, you could do a lot worse than 21–6 former champion Max Holloway and hot prospect, Calvin Kattar; these two have a combined 24 career knockouts as well as being involved in some electric 3 and 5 round fights. Holloway is coming off back to back losses to current champion Alexander ‘The Great’ Volkanovski, two close decisions, the second of which, one of the judges scored for the Hawaiian. Now, to earn a trilogy bout with Volko, Max must overcome a tough customer in the form of Calvin Kattar, a deadly boxer with a 7–2 record in the UFC including a vicious KO of Jeremy Stephens via elbows and, most recently, a landslide unanimous decision nod over fellow contender Dan Ige on Fight Island. Kattar is an intelligent striker, utilising the jab in the pocket to chisel away at his opponents before rushing in for the finish. Put simply, he is a blood and guts fighter who does the basics to perfection, credentials that have many believing that he will be the featherweight champion in the very near future. A victory over Max Holloway, a legend in the weight class, would make CK impossible to ignore as far as the title conversation goes but, claiming said scalp will be a tall order. Holloway is famed for more or less reviving the 145lb division after Conor McGregor vacated the belt. His sublime knockout of Anthony Pettis for the interim title set up a unification bout with titan Jose Aldo. Holloway knocked out the Brazilian to become the undisputed champion and, for good measure, knocked him out again in an immediate rematch. From there, Blessed defended his title twice more, firstly against Brian Ortega where he forced his challenger to absorb the most significant strikes in a single bout in the UFC’s history and then against former 155lb champion, Frankie Edgar in a walkover unanimous decision. Max is a volume striker, overwhelming his opponents with immense cardio and barrages of punches peppering his target but, this could play to Kattar’s strengths if he can find angles and counter-punch effectively. Should Kattar beat the odds and get the win in this fight, he may be next in line for a shot at the belt or, at least, one win away. If Holloway loses, it’ll back to the drawing board as a 3 fight losing skid may maroon him as far as title contention goes.
Key questions: Will Kattar be able to cope with Holloway’s cardio if he cannot finish the fight quickly? Can Holloway box clever and not be lured into Kattar’s counter-punches? What’s next for Kattar if he can win against Holloway?
3. Bills vs Ravens
A delicious prospect in the divisional round of the NFL sees Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens facing a Buffalo Bills team with the wind in their sails after their first playoff win in 25 years. This is poised to be the most closely contested game of the weekend since the pass-heavy Buffalo Bills will be tested against a Ravens defence that has been competent at dealing with aerial plays this season especially deep balls which the Bills QB has been fond of this term. The Baltimore pass rush is intense too, they blitzed at a higher rate this season than any other team but they may be cancelled out by Buffalo who have managed to protect their quarterback effectively in the season so far. This hunger to go after the man under centre led to the Ravens being one of the hardest teams to get past on third downs but, in the Bills, they will face a team with a 49.7% conversion rate on 3rd, the best at moving the chains in the league. Baltimore may have the advantage on the ground as their three-headed rush attack of Dobbins, Jackson and Edwards have been fantastic all year. Couple this with Buffalo’s patchy rushing defence that allowed 4.6 yards per carry in the regular season and we have another potential area for this game to be won and lost. Buffalo will have to take care inside the Red Zone too as the Ravens had the 12th best TD conversion rate inside 20 yards and the Bills’ defence in that same area of the field was 5th weakest in the NFL. This will doubtless be an intriguing matchup for both teams as they play to one another’s weaknesses.
Here is where the game may be won or lost: Can Buffalo’s tepid run defence hold back Lamar Jackson? (They struggled against running QBs this season, giving up 6 yards per carry to Cam Newton and 1 TD to Kylar Murray). The Ravens have a decent pass defence but the Bills’ aerial game has been next-level this season; can Baltimore contain Allen, Diggs and Beasley?
4. England vs Sri Lanka. Test 1, Day 3.
After bowling out Sri Lanka for 135 on day one of the first test in Galle, England are building a comfortable lead (at the time of writing) in the second session of day two. Broad and Bess wreaked havoc, the paceman taking 3 wickets in Sri Lanka’s top order before the spinner completed his 5 wicket haul by bowling out Wanindu Hasaranga. After an initial wobble that saw Crawley and Sibley fall for single-digit scores, Bairstow added 47 before being dismissed himself, Lasith Embuldeniya with all three wickets making him the first Sri Lankan called Lasith to take wickets against England since Malinga. Since then, Joe Root and debutant Dan Lawrence have established the innings, scoring 158* and 72* respectively. With plenty of time left to play, the match is slipping away from the hosts but there are some aspects of this test match to watch out for: Can Dan Lawrence score a century on his test debut for England? Will Dom Bess continue to shine with bat and ball? No Sri Lankan batsman scored over 28 runs, what will they take away from this match in terms of the structure of their order?
5. Buccaneers vs Saints.
The other titanic matchup in the NFL divisional round this weekend sees the Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel to New Orleans to face their NFC South rivals, the Saints. Brady and Brees, two absolute veterans of the game collide (the combined age of these two teams’ quarterbacks is 85) to see who will progress to the NFC championship and take on the Packers or the Rams. Many believe that defence will determine the victor in this one. Brady and the Bucs have relied on their passing game this season, TB12 throwing 40 TDS at a rating of 102.2 in 2020. Antonio Brown, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin continue to do well as weapons for the Bucs, not to mention Rob Gronkowski’s impact when he pops up, helping them to the 2nd most passing yards per game in the league and the 3rd most points per game. New Orleans, though, are well equipped to deal with this, they allowed the 4th lowest passer rating in the NFL this season at 83.3, an often overlooked achievement. Also, they kept pass completion to less than 60% on average in 2020. The Saints run defence is also effective this year; they allowed only 2.5 yards per carry against the Bears in their wildcard round and 93.9 yards per game against their opponents in the regular season. They will be trying to stop Leonard Fournette this week whose performance against the Washington Football Team in the playoff game was impressive; 19 rushes for 93 yards and a touchdown. Tampa Bay’s Red Zone offence was ranked 7th in the NFL last season while the Saints’ defence inside the 20 was ranked 29th making this another danger area where the game could be won or lost. The Saints are much better in the opponent’s Red Zone and are one of the top teams in the NFL at moving the chains. We can assess the stats all we want but, honestly, this is a pick ’em game between two teams with similar credentials. It’ll come down to which defence is more effective, The Saints’ against the run or the Buc’s against the pass.
Max Pleasance
